Los mercados de la vivienda son destinos preferidos para los inversores extranjeros que buscan rendimientos, casas de vacaciones o refugios seguros, o para quienes eluden las restricciones fiscales y la represión de la corrupción en sus países de origen. Pero la demanda de viviendas estadounidenses por parte de inversores extranjeros, especialmente chino, hace subir los precios de las viviendas, exacerbando las preocupaciones sobre la asequibilidad de la vivienda, según una nueva investigación de Wharton.

Los precios de la vivienda crecieron 8 puntos porcentuales más en los códigos postales de EE. UU. Con una alta población china nacida en el extranjero de 2012 a 2018, según un documento titulado "Capital global y activos locales:precios de la vivienda, Cantidades, y Elasticidades, "escrito por la estudiante de doctorado de Wharton Caitlin Gorback y el profesor de bienes raíces de Wharton Benjamin Keys.

"El panorama general es que tenemos una crisis de asequibilidad para la vivienda en las ciudades donde están los trabajos, Keys dijo:"Una de las tensiones reales en el mercado de la vivienda de Estados Unidos es que los lugares que están experimentando un fuerte crecimiento del empleo no están creando nuevas viviendas lo suficientemente rápido para adaptarse a ese crecimiento del empleo".

El ejemplo más claro de desconexiones entre el crecimiento del empleo y la vivienda es el Área de la Bahía de San Francisco y específicamente el Condado de San Mateo. dijo Keys. Desde 2012, esa región ha tenido un aumento de alrededor del 30% en el empleo, pero menos del 10% de aumento en unidades de vivienda, añadió.

Keys culpó de la escasez de viviendas a las restricciones de zonificación que disuaden la construcción de nuevas viviendas, y el aumento de los costos de construcción. "Hay cerca de seis veces más trabajos nuevos que permisos de vivienda nuevos, ", dijo." Hay muchos obstáculos que superar para construir algo en estos lugares, especialmente para construir de una manera densa ".

Los extranjeros que compran viviendas en los EE. UU. Pueden exacerbar ese problema de asequibilidad, Keys continuó. Los compradores chinos han liderado las inversiones extranjeras en hogares estadounidenses durante los últimos siete años. En 2019-2020, compraron propiedades residenciales en EE. UU. por valor de $ 11.5 mil millones, o poco más de una sexta parte del total, según un informe de la Asociación Nacional de Agentes Inmobiliarios (NAR). Otros inversores entre los cinco primeros procedían de Canadá, México, India y Colombia, en ese orden. (Colombia reemplazó el año pasado al Reino Unido como el quinto país de origen de compradores extranjeros). Las compras de compradores extranjeros representaron el 4% de las ventas de casas existentes de $ 1.7 billones el año pasado, señaló el informe de la NAR.

La investigación de Gorback y Keys también muestra que los precios de la vivienda y los alquileres han aumentado en lugares que han visto grandes dosis de inversión extranjera. "Eso se debe en gran parte a que los lugares donde se ven compradores extranjeros son los mismos lugares que tienen economías más dinámicas y tienen más empleos".

Aproximadamente la mitad de las viviendas que compran los extranjeros se utilizan como residencias principales; los demás sirven como casas de vacaciones, segundas residencias o un pied-a-terre que visitan ocasionalmente, dijo Keys. "Por ejemplo, gran parte de la inversión canadiense en viviendas estadounidenses proviene de los pájaros de la nieve que compran casas en Florida ".

El alcance de un 'shock de demanda'

Utilizar la inversión extranjera como un "shock de demanda, "el documento también analiza qué tan sensible es el desarrollo de viviendas a los cambios en el precio". Si los precios suben en un mercado, ¿Eso estimula la construcción? ¿Eso conduce a palas en el suelo? ", Preguntó Keys. Los diferentes mercados responden de manera diferente a esos factores desencadenantes, y mucho depende de la disponibilidad de ubicaciones alternativas cercanas, El lo notó.

El estudio encontró que los mercados de la vivienda son relativamente inelásticos a los cambios de precios en el corto plazo de unos 10 años. "Los precios de la vivienda pueden moverse mucho más rápidamente que la construcción de viviendas, ", dijo Keys. Agregó que" los mercados costeros y los mercados que históricamente han tenido requisitos de zonificación más estrictos parecen ser más inelásticos durante este período, "y agregó que este hallazgo es consistente con investigaciones anteriores.

Keys señaló que su investigación proporciona "una nueva estimación empírica de estas elasticidades que no ha sido estimada utilizando este enfoque o durante este período de tiempo". Hace posible "comparar y contrastar y, con suerte, calibrar los modelos de economía urbana relacionados con la capacidad de respuesta que esperaríamos de los mercados de la vivienda a los diferentes tipos de shocks, "añadió.

El "impacto de la demanda" de la inversión extranjera también desencadena un efecto dominó en los mercados de la vivienda, el estudio encontró, citando a Seattle como ejemplo de caso. "En el caso de Seattle, cuando profundiza geográficamente, ves este patrón de crecimiento diferencial del precio de la vivienda, no solo en los barrios altos de nacidos en el extranjero, pero en los barrios que bordean esos barrios, "dijo Keys.

The Seattle example is part of the study's computation of the impact foreign capital flows have on house prices and supply for the largest 100 markets in the U.S. It found that local housing markets are price inelastic in the short run, but that is heterogeneous (or varies) across markets. Seattle displayed "a spillover effect" where investment in foreign-born Chinese neighborhoods pushes up housing prices in the nearby neighborhoods as well, Keys continued. Seattle also absorbs some of the demand redirected from Canada, where cities like Vancouver deter foreign ownership of homes through taxes, including on ownership of vacant homes, añadió.

Redirected Foreign Demand, Volatility

The U.S. housing market is also particularly sensitive to tax restraints many countries impose on foreigners buying residential properties in their jurisdictions, the paper found. Some of the investors turned away from those countries head to the U.S., which does not have those tax restraints.

Chinese investments in U.S. housing reflect in part a flight of capital from China in recent years, said Keys. "A big part of that was about wealthier Chinese citizens moving their money abroad to avoid taxes and to avoid scrutiny, " he added. In fact, China in 2016 experienced "the greatest episode of capital flight in history, " according to a Wall Street Journal report at the time.

As those investors turned their attention to the U.S., its housing markets turned out to be more sensitive than previously thought, said Keys. "One surprising finding in our study is how responsive foreign investment is to tax policies imposed abroad, " he added. "The takeaway for us is that these policies that are being imposed in countries like Singapore, Australia, Canada and New Zealand have a direct effect on the U.S. housing market."

Several countries consciously regulate foreign investments in residential properties, recognizing the undesirable effects some of that could have, especially with speculation. The paper documents 10 policy events in five countries between 2011 and 2018 that made the U.S. housing market "relatively cheaper to invest in." The governments in those countries used tax policy to deter foreigners from buying housing properties and to curb speculation.

Singapore was the first to introduce a foreign buyer tax in 2011 in the form of a stamp duty; it progressively increased that to 20% by July 2018. Hong Kong levies stamp duties of 30% on nonresident home buyers, which includes a duty on those who are not first-time buyers, including residents.

Others that levy taxes on foreign buyers of residential properties include the governments of British Columbia and Ontario in Canada; Victoria in Australia; and New Zealand. British Columbia also levied a speculation and vacancy tax in certain communities. Many countries impose such "foreign real estate buyer taxes" in order to deter foreign capital inflows and stabilize housing prices in their markets, the paper's authors noted.

While foreign investments have lifted home prices in select U.S. markets, they have declined in the last three years. Foreign inflows had been steadily increasing from $66 billion in 2009-2010 to $153 billion in 2016-2017, but have since dropped to $74 billion last year (2019-2020), according to the NAR report cited earlier.

Chinese investments in U.S. housing have followed that pattern, falling from nearly $32 billion in 2016-2017 to $11.5 billion last year. Keys attributed that to China's capital controls in recent years and pressure on its citizens to unwind their investments abroad in order to shore up its domestic economy, as the Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S.-China trade war, U.S. controls on immigration and unfavorable exchange rates have also dampened Chinese investments in U.S. housing, El lo notó.

What's Next for U.S. Housing?

Keys said his study is timely now because "there's a big question about how the housing market will come back after COVID-19." He noted that several housing submarkets in the U.S. have seen "huge inflows of foreign investment" over the last 10 years. "If that dries up, it would represent an opportunity for domestic buyers and put downward pressure on prices, but that may be a bad thing for existing home owners."

If the pandemic persists, foreign investments in U.S. homes would continue their decline, and cause home prices to fall, Keys predicted. In that setting, "clearly, there would be an advantage for domestic homebuyers, " said Keys. "[Also], a decline in foreign investment may relax some of the affordability constraints to a modest degree in cities where the jobs are more plentiful than the housing in them."

Some of the space vacated by Chinese and Canadian investors could be filled by those from Mexico, India and Colombia, which have shown rising appetites for U.S. homes. But such demand is "highly dependent" on U.S. federal policies, said Keys. U.S. policies on combating COVID-19 is the first factor, añadió. "Relative to the alternative markets where foreign buyers may be considering, we as a country have done the worst job managing the COVID crisis. Investors who are deliberating between the other megacities of the world and are concerned about public health will steer their investments away from the U.S. at the moment."

The outcome of the forthcoming U.S. presidential election could change some of those stakes. "At the moment, it feels like a difficult time for immigrants to feel welcome in this country, given the set of federal policies in place and the barriers to immigrate, " said Keys. "So, a change in administration that is attached to a change in those policies could certainly reinvigorate investment in the U.S. housing market."

Policy Prescriptions

Could the U.S. do something to protect its housing markets from unfavorable foreign investment? Policy makers could weigh the speed and magnitude at which foreign capital flows would decline, if the U.S. were to impose "a large foreign buyer tax" to deter foreign investments in housing, said Keys. Such investments "appear to be quite elastic" to the imposition of a foreign-buyer tax, añadió.

"My concern is largely one of unused housing units, especially in expensive areas, " said Keys. A vacancy tax similar to that in Vancouver is "worth considering, " he added. "One of the things that rapid flows of investment could do is they can distort construction efforts and put additional resources towards building properties that foreign investors may want only in the short term, but then that housing stock will last a very long time."

Keys also urged state and local governments to re-examine zoning and height restrictions, and the time delays that permitting for new construction entails. "The number of hurdles to jump through makes it so challenging to develop affordable housing in the U.S., " he added. Some states like California have already begun taking legislative action to push local communities to change their zoning rules, El lo notó.