Algún día pronto, Los analistas determinarán que una ciudad o condado, o tal vez un distrito escolar o una empresa de servicios públicos, es tan vulnerable al aumento del nivel del mar, inundación, sequía o incendios forestales que es un riesgo de inversión.

Para estar seguro, ninguna comunidad ha visto rebajada su calificación crediticia debido a los pronósticos climáticos. Y nadie ha oído hablar de un gobierno que tenga dificultades para acceder al capital debido a su precaria posición geográfica.

Pero a medida que las empresas de calificación comienzan a centrarse en el cambio climático, y los inversores hablan cada vez más sobre el tema, los involucrados en el mercado dicen que ahora es el momento de que las comunidades hagan inversiones serias en resiliencia climática, o se arriesguen a ser castigadas por el sector financiero en el futuro.

"No solo miramos la vulnerabilidad de los gobiernos estatales y locales, pero su capacidad para gestionar el impacto, "dijo Emily Raimes, vicepresidente de Moody's Public Finance Group. "Si bien analizaremos los datos sobre el aumento del nivel del mar y quiénes pueden ser más vulnerables, también veremos qué están haciendo estos gobiernos para mitigar el impacto ".

Moody's ha expresado especialmente sus preocupaciones sobre el cambio climático. La firma ha publicado numerosos artículos evaluando el riesgo climático, y hace dos meses compró una participación mayoritaria en Four Twenty Seven, una empresa de datos sobre riesgos climáticos.

Emilie Mazzacurati, Fundador y CEO de Four Twenty Seven, dijo que la atención del sector de bonos al tema debería impulsar a los gobiernos locales a convertirlo en una prioridad. "Crea un incentivo para que estén mejor preparados, porque les va a costar dinero si no lo hacen ".

Pero a algunos les preocupa que castigar a los lugares por su susceptibilidad al cambio climático les dificulte más financiar las mejoras de infraestructura que podrían protegerlos.

"Nadie ha sido sancionado todavía por tener una mala política, práctica o sistema ambiental, "dijo Tim Schaefer, Tesorero adjunto de finanzas públicas de California. "No sé cuánto tiempo más durará. Supongo que no mucho más".

Los gobiernos, grandes y pequeños, dependen del mercado de bonos municipales de $ 3,8 billones para gran parte de su trabajo de infraestructura. Cuando los funcionarios quieren construir una carretera o una escuela, o un malecón o un centro de operaciones de emergencia, a menudo emiten bonos, aportando el dinero necesario para completar el proyecto. A los inversores se les reembolsa con intereses durante un período que puede durar décadas o más.

Aproximadamente dos tercios de los proyectos de infraestructura en los Estados Unidos se pagan con bonos municipales, y más de 50, 000 estados, los gobiernos locales y otras autoridades han emitido bonos para financiar su trabajo.

Los gobiernos pagan tasas de interés más altas sobre esos bonos cuando sus calificaciones crediticias son bajas. Empresas como Moody's Investors Service y Standard &Poor's Financial Services emiten las evaluaciones de calificaciones.

"Los inversores están en condiciones de exigir una mayor rentabilidad cuando ven un mayor riesgo, "dijo Kurt Forsgren, director gerente de S&P Global Ratings.

Los bonos municipales se consideran una inversión conservadora, con una tasa de incumplimiento actual de alrededor del 0,3%, según Matt Fabian, socio de Municipal Market Analytics. Hasta la fecha, el mercado de bonos ha hecho poco para reflejar que el riesgo puede estar aumentando.

"Casi no hay impacto en los precios de los bonos municipales con respecto a las vulnerabilidades del cambio climático. Los precios no reconocen el riesgo del cambio climático, "La mayoría de los inversionistas creen que (el cambio climático) va a comenzar a afectar el mercado justo después de que venzan sus propios bonos".

A medida que más inversores y empresas estudian los riesgos, sin embargo, eso podría cambiar.

"Estamos a aproximadamente un año de que el cambio climático comience a afectar el mercado de muni, un poco, "Dijo Fabián." Los cambios en el lado de los inversores van a suceder primero, las calificaciones (crediticias) vendrán en segundo lugar, y el comportamiento del emisor será un tercio lejano ".

Algunos inversores ya han comenzado a tener en cuenta el cambio climático en sus decisiones. Eric Glass, un gestor de carteras de AllianceBernstein, dijo que su cartera optó por mantenerse al margen de un bono reciente de tres décadas en los Cayos de Florida, que se enfrenta al aumento del nivel del mar.

"¿Cómo serán (los Cayos de Florida) en 30 años?" Dijo Glass. "No lo sé. Pero sé que no se verá como se ve hoy. Es un cálculo difícil de hacer, y hemos decidido no aceptarlo ".

David Jacobson, vicepresidente de comunicaciones de Moody's Public Finance Group, called a downgrade over climate projections a "what-if type of thing." Moody's ratings are based on what its analysts expect a government's creditworthiness to be in the next 12 to 24 months, he said, even though the bonds they issue can run for decades.

"The things that are happening right now or in the next 24 months weigh a whole lot more than things we think will happen in 15 to 20 years, " said Lenny Jones, a managing director at Moody's. "We're not scientists."

Credit-rating firms have always acted conservatively, said Justin Marlowe, a professor at the University of Washington who studies public finance. To some critics, that reluctance to downgrade pre-emptively is leaving the market unprepared for the onslaught of climate effects that so many local governments will face.

That's the conundrum facing the municipal bond market right now:If the market fails to be proactive about future risks, it could lead to billions in ill-fated investments in communities at the forefront of climate change. But making it more expensive for governments with environmental liabilities to borrow money could prevent them from making the improvements needed to strengthen their infrastructure.

And just because a city is likely to be struck by sea level rise or wildfire doesn't necessarily mean it will default on its bonds. Further effects like crop yields and population shifts—and their impact on a tax base—could prove even harder to project.

"It's a pretty big step from 'we have economic impacts' to 'this is going to affect their long-term ability to repay their bonds.' There's a really big difference, " Mazzacurati said. "(Ratings firms') focus is really about counties who repay their debt. Eso es todo. There can be really important impacts that are not going to be reflected in the bond rating, and that doesn't mean the bond rating is off."

Hasta aquí, the few climate-related credit downgrades have come after specific disasters. New Orleans and Port Arthur, Texas, experienced credit downgrades after major hurricanes. And after a fire nearly destroyed Paradise, California, el año pasado, the pool of pension obligation bonds it was a member of saw its credit downgraded.

As New Orleans rebounded, its credit improved. The city adopted a resilience strategy, bolstered its levee system and pursued other projects, such as turning green space into water reservoirs during periods of flooding. Hoy dia, the city sees its biggest climate threat as extreme rainfall, which has increased in frequency in recent years and flooded parts of the city.

Leaders in New Orleans are asking voters to approve $500 million in new bonds, which would pay for infrastructure improvements such as the replacement of outdated pipes, as well as other goals like affordable housing. City officials say it shows New Orleans is "doubling down" on its infrastructure program.

"The environment is changing. More water's coming down in a shorter period, and we have to respond to that, " said Norman White, the city's chief financial officer. "Our first responsibility is to the citizens of New Orleans. Fortunately, that lines up with investors."

Coastal cities across the country are building seawalls to stave off rising oceans. Others are elevating roadways to prepare for more frequent flooding. Some are requiring sturdier new construction and retrofitting existing buildings to withstand severe weather events. Communities in drought-prone areas may focus on projects such as water storage, while those with flooding concerns must fortify their sewage infrastructure.

El año pasado, Moody's surveyed the 50 largest U.S. cities; 28 responded. Entre ellos, they had 240 climate resilience projects, totaling $47 billion. Some 60% of the projects were to combat flooding.

Florida's Miami-Dade County has been praised by analysts for its infrastructure investments focused on climate preparedness. Ed Marquez, the county's deputy mayor, said future financing is a "concern, " but officials are trying to address that with capital plans focused on dealing with the changing climate.

"This is a many-year process as we fix our infrastructure, as we add new infrastructure, as new science comes on board, " he said. "Miami is still growing. People are still coming. Investors are buying our bonds. We're telling them what the odds are, but it's odds that they're willing to play."

En todo el estado Florida remains in good shape creditwise, despite the challenges many of its communities are facing. Ben Watkins, the state's director of bond finance, said that's likely to continue, even amid hurricanes and rising sea levels. Even the most devastating hurricane seasons have ended up being a "blip on the radar" in terms of Florida's credit health, él dijo. But concern remains for smaller governments within the state.

"People are dying to come to Florida and coming to Florida to die, " he said. "Until that changes, we'll have the economic engines to be able to access credit."

Cities with climate change risks should follow Florida's lead and borrow now for local projects, said Fabian, the analytics researcher.

"As investors get smarter about climate change risk, it will become more expensive for governments with the largest need to borrow, " Fabian said. "Their costs to borrow could certainly be higher. Acting earlier is almost always cheaper."

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