Karl Schwartz desearía estar simplemente persiguiendo la gloria en la pista de carreras de motos de nieve. En lugar de, en años recientes, se ha visto obligado a perseguir un clima frío cada vez más esquivo.

Schwartz, de Freeland, es presidente de la Midwest International Racing Association, un circuito de carreras de motos de nieve que opera principalmente en Michigan durante más de 40 años. Sus carreras de fin de semana atraen a unos 100 equipos, cientos de corredores y miembros de la tripulación, y miles de fans más, generalmente como parte del festival de invierno de una comunidad local.

Pero cada año a medida que cambia el clima de Michigan, se está volviendo más difícil de hacer.

"Corremos sobre hielo, no nieve, ", dijo." No necesitamos nieve, necesitamos temperaturas frías ".

Los corredores a menudo compiten en pistas de caballos de feria, inundado con cientos de miles de galones de agua para intentar construir una base de tierra congelada que las máquinas de los corredores masticarán durante un fin de semana de competencia. Necesitan alrededor de dos semanas de temperaturas en la adolescencia para crear las condiciones adecuadas. Con frecuencia creciente, que se está volviendo casi imposible de encontrar, Dijo Schwartz.

"A pesar de nuestros mejores esfuerzos para mover nuestro calendario, y regar estas pistas de carreras con semanas de antelación, todavía tenemos que cambiar las fechas, cancelar fechas y correr en condiciones menos que perfectas debido al clima cálido, " él dijo.

"Este ha sido un problema constante para nosotros, especialmente los últimos años. Ha pasado más tiempo que eso pero especialmente los últimos cinco años, ha sido realmente realmente problemático ".

La junta de la asociación de carreras ha celebrado reuniones en los últimos años para hablar sobre lo que puede hacer, incluyendo mover más razas más al norte.

"(Pero) ya estamos en Sault Ste. Marie, "en el este de la Península Superior en la frontera con Canadá, Dijo Schwartz. "Dos carreras allí, y ni siquiera pueden enfriarse lo suficiente. Nuestra raza en Ironwood (en el lejano oeste de la Universidad de Washington) tuvo problemas, también.

"Cuando no se puede conseguir hielo en la frontera canadiense, ¿Cuánto más al norte puedes ir? "

Michigan hace frío inviernos nevados, y una forma de vida construida a su alrededor, están siendo interrumpidos por el cambio climático. Y para los festivales de invierno dependientes del frío, la nieve y el hielo, y las comunidades que dependen del impulso económico en un momento lento que traen esos festivales, está causando algunos problemas para adaptarse, e incluso para sobrevivir.

La región de los Grandes Lagos ha experimentado un aumento mayor en las temperaturas medias anuales que el resto de los Estados Unidos continentales. Y "los inviernos son cada vez más cálidos que los veranos, "dijo Richard Rood, profesor de ciencias e ingeniería del clima y el espacio en la Universidad de Michigan.

"El planeta en general se está calentando, pero estados como Wisconsin, Michigan e Illinois se están calentando más rápido, "dijo Don Wuebbles, profesor del Departamento de Ciencias Atmosféricas de la Universidad de Illinois.

Las nevadas en la cuenca de los Grandes Lagos disminuyeron 2.25% de 1984 a 2013 en comparación con 1954 a 1983. Los investigadores proyectan que las nevadas podrían disminuir en casi un 48% para 2080 en un escenario de negocios como siempre sin reducción de las emisiones de carbono humano. Pero incluso en un escenario más optimista, donde las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero se reducen significativamente, Se espera que las nevadas de invierno en la cuenca de los Grandes Lagos disminuyan en más del 28% para 2080.

El número de días en los que la temperatura baja por debajo del punto de congelación, 32 grados Fahrenheit, en la región de los Grandes Lagos, según las proyecciones de los científicos, disminuirá en más de un mes por año en el escenario de mayores emisiones, y por tres semanas en el escenario de bajas emisiones. Y los días en los que la temperatura alta se mantiene por debajo del punto de congelación, el tipo de días de invierno consistentemente fríos que se necesitan para actividades como andar en motos de nieve, pesca en hielo, esquí de fondo y más:se prevé que disminuyan 56 días al año debido a mayores emisiones de carbono, y por 31 días con emisiones más bajas.

Inviernos de Michigan, como las conocieron y confiaron en ellas, parece estar llegando a su fin. Seguirán ocurriendo olas de frío y fuertes nevadas con efecto lago, pero ocurren en ráfagas cada vez menos frecuentes a lo largo del tiempo.

"Si bien en algunas regiones sigue nevando mucho, cómo se comporta una vez en el suelo es bastante diferente, "Dijo Rood." No dura tanto, y se vuelve descuidado cuando la lluvia cae sobre él.

"No tiene que ser mucho más cálido para obtener lluvia con efecto lago en lugar de nieve con efecto lago".

A finales de siglo, en un escenario de altas emisiones de carbono continuas, Los científicos proyectan que la temperatura promedio anual de Michigan podría aumentar en 9 o 10 grados Fahrenheit, Dijo Wuebbles.

"Eso es mucho, clima muy diferente, ", dijo." A modo de comparación, la última Edad de Hielo, que trajo hielo de 2 millas de espesor aquí, la temperatura era 11 grados más fría que hoy ".

Winter Fest está cancelado, de nuevo

Los festivales de invierno de Michigan enfrentan un desafío diferente este año:la pandemia de COVID-19. Pero en los últimos años, La interrupción se debe a la falta de condiciones invernales tradicionales.

El Caro Winter Fest, en la región Thumb de la península inferior de Michigan, eventos cancelados por segundo invierno consecutivo en enero. The festival is built around the Midwest International Racing Association's snowmobile races.

"The past few years, the temperatures have not cooperated whatsoever before the event, " said Kris Reinelt, Caro Winter Fest board president.

Festival staff usually begin flooding the Tuscola County Fairgrounds to build ice layers for the snowmobile racing track after the holidays, in preparation for the Winter Fest races, usually held around the third weekend of January.

"We need at least a week of consistent, temperaturas bajas, " Reinelt said. "We would be able to build up 1 or 2 inches of ice a night, but then in the daytime, it would warm up and take it away.

"We have to pay for the water, we have to pay for the time. It doesn't become cost-effective to fight that battle."

The lost festivals over back-to-back years, and threatened again in 2021 by the coronavirus, cause a painful economic hit for the community.

"The racing teams bring in 300 people just among the racers, their families and friends who follow them, " Reinelt said. "In Caro, we draw another 3, 000 personas. Those are 3, 300 people who may never come to Caro, and they are coming in the middle of winter, which is a slow time. That's so helpful to the hotels, restaurantes, grocery stores."

At Tip-Up Town U.S., Michigan's longest-running winter festival, established in 1953 and built around ice fishing on Houghton Lake, nearly a dozen people fell through the ice last January, their snowmobiles, four-wheelers and other vehicles breaking through thin ice that was open water less than a week earlier.

The Kalkaska Winterfest, in northern Lower Michigan, features one of the Midwest's largest dog-sledding sprint races, going back to 1965—longer-running than the famed Iditarod in Alaska.

En 2017, the races scheduled for January were postponed until the first week of March because of a lack of wintry conditions. When it was more of the same in March, the races were canceled.

En 2018, the races were postponed in January, then canceled in February. El próximo año, the January dates were again moved to February, when the latter half of the racing schedule that weekend was canceled because "everything had just melted, " said Shannon Moore, a race marshal and board secretary for the Winterfest.

"That was something I'd never seen at a dog race, siempre, " ella dijo.

At the local hotel sponsoring the event and hosting race teams and their families, the All Season Resort, "they go from being completely booked to 5% occupancy when we cancel, "Dijo Moore.

Many of the dog-sledding teams come from out of state, as much as 10 hours away, and bring kennels and trucks, crews and families. Though 2020's races went off without a hitch in mid-February, the more races that get postponed, canceled or happen in poor conditions, the more worry that teams won't bother coming, Dijo Moore.

"I think we'll have to keep aiming for February and hoping we get lucky, " she said. "When we do it later in March, eso no va a funcionar. And the January dates haven't been working, cualquiera."

Snowmobile sales plummet 70%

Carl Gerstacker was a snowmobiling fanatic.

"From the mid-'90s until about '05-'06, there was a solid 10 years where we put on just a ton of miles and had fun with it, " él dijo.

But the pastime got more expensive. And the right conditions became harder to find.

"The winters are hit-or-miss now, " he said. "We've had some really good winters, where the guys are up there (in northern Michigan) feasting on perfect conditions. But when you're making payments on a $15, 000 machine, you need some consistency."

Gerstacker and his friends were "weekend warriors"—"get off work a little early on Friday, head north, spend the weekend riding the trails, head back home Sunday and go to work on Monday." But needing to go ever farther north to find the best, most consistent riding became a time-consuming, costly effort.

"If you're chasing snow into the U.P., that's not an option anymore, " the Brighton-area resident said. "You're talking eight to 10 hours of driving to get up into the good snow and the best trails."

Gerstacker in recent years has changed out the sleds for a side-by-side, a four-wheeled recreational vehicle featuring two rows of seating that his wife and two children can enjoy with him.

"There's always dirt, there's not always snow, " he said. "I'm watching my buddies making payments on these (snowmobiles), and they are going to ride two months this year. And these quick little shots Up North are expensive, también.

"I don't look back. I enjoy the side-by-side more than I ever did snowmobiling."

Gerstacker isn't alone in leaving snowmobiles behind. Snowmobile sales in the U.S. are down 70% from their 1997 peak, according to the International Snowmobile Manufacturers Association, a Haslett-based trade organization representing North America's four major snowmobile manufacturers:Arctic Cat; Ski-Doo/Bombardier; Polaris and Yamaha.

The Michigan Snowmobile Association, a Wyoming, Michigan-based nonprofit organization promoting and preserving the sport, also saw the changing reality. En mayo de 2019, its board—over the protests of some sledding die-hards—voted to become the Michigan Snowmobile and ORV Association, adding off-road vehicles under its canopy.

"They are motorized, we are motorized, and very often we have the same goals and objectives, " such as promoting trail access, said Karen Middendorp, the association's executive director.

Changing weather is unquestionably a factor in snowmobiling's decline, ella dijo.

"You can't ride every weekend, especially for the down-staters, " she said. "There's not enough snow."

Snowmobiling exploded in popularity in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s, bringing $321 million in sales, $187 million in income, and more than 6, 000 jobs to Michigan's economy, according to a 1998 Michigan State University study. It was primarily driven by baby boomers who had reached a more comfortable point in their lives and had the disposable income to afford, and the time to enjoy, snowmobiling. But now that population cohort is waning in the sport, said Edward Klim, executive director of the snowmobile manufacturers association.

"We have started to really look at millennials and Generation X. Are they recreating in the snow? Are they riding snowmobiles?" él dijo. "How does the next generation want to recreate? Some people will buy an ATV or UTV (utility terrain vehicle) and use it nine or 10 months a year."

It's a reality snowmobile dealers have been forced to confront:change or die.

"The writing was on the wall 10-plus years ago, " said Mike Nord, owner of Nord-Ride Motorsports in Mount Morris Township.

Around 2000, there were as many as 10 snowmobile dealerships in the greater Genesee County area. Nord's is now the only one left.

"There are two negative things against it:The cost of it now, and the weather, " he said. "The dealers had to look at it and say, 'This isn't a good business decision any longer.'"

Nord has survived by diversifying his vehicles, adding ATVs, side-by-sides and more. But even that comes with risks.

"If you look at some of the dealers that have fallen by the wayside, they fell into this trap, " he said. "You have to be able to accommodate (these diverse recreational vehicles), so you have to get bigger on your buildings, and that means bigger on your overheads. You finance that to increase the size of your building, and all of a sudden, we have an economic downturn. There is no Plan B."

A diferencia de, ski resorts have stayed relatively unscathed by warming weather because of their ability to make snow, said Amy Reents, executive director of the Midwest Ski Areas Association based in Hastings, Minnesota, a nonprofit trade group promoting skiing and ski resort interests in Michigan and surrounding states.

"We're not growing by leaps and bounds, but there haven't been any great fall-offs, " ella dijo.

During a few days of cold weather, a ski resort can lay down several feet of manufactured snow, ella dijo. It's then packed and groomed and provides a base with its own refrigeration.

"They can withstand several days in the 40s—it will do much better than the snow in your front yard, " Reents said.

"The changes in snow-making technology over the years have made it so much easier to make snow in warmer temperatures. If anything has changed for the ski industry, it's that (resorts) have decided that capital investing in snow-making technology is hugely important."

Adaptation is essential

Adaptation and diversification will become increasingly essential for Michigan's winter festivals to continue and thrive. Many have already figured that out.

From long-ago years where many of Tip-Up Town U.S.'s events were held on the thick ice of Houghton Lake, the festival now largely operates under large tents on the shore, featuring family fun, comida, music and merchants, said Jay Jacobs, executive director of the Houghton Lake Chamber of Commerce and a lead organizer of the festival.

Tip-Up Town typically draws about 10, 000 visitors over its two weekends of events at the end of January.

"It's very essential to us, " he said. "We rely on tourism—we don't have an industrial park; Houghton Lake doesn't have a defined downtown, un hospital, a university. These two weekends in the winter are a nice little shot in the arm for the community."

But even with diverse events not reliant on snow, ice or cold, a psychological deterrent can keep potential festival-goers home when it's warm out.

"It does affect the number of people who show up, " said Jacobs. "We've had a few years where it's been rainy, and people just don't hang around."

The Caro Winter Fest is so intricately tied to snowmobile races, it can't happen without them right now, Reinelt said. She wants to ask residents how they feel about changing that, in the wake of the recent, weather-related cancelations.

"I want to do polls on our Facebook:Would you come out in the middle of winter to watch a chainsaw ice competition, a warming tent with live entertainment, and a beer and wine bar?" she said.

A larger adaptation is needed, Rood said:a reduction in human-caused carbon emissions that are fueling climate change.

"These big changes should be major motivators to take on that carbon dioxide reduction problem, " él dijo.

©2021 the Detroit Free Press
Distribuido por Tribune Content Agency, LLC.